STAT 440 - Forecasting
Lecture Review #1 - Course Introduction

Following each class there will be a lecture review assignment. These assignments are designed to keep you current on course material, to reinforce learning by repetition of key ideas and computations, and to structure your investigation of class materials beyond the in-class lectures and activities.

Lecture review assignments are due at the beginning of the following class period. They may be typed or neatly hand-written. PLEASE label each submission with your name and the assignment number (to facilitate giving you proper credit). Multiple pages will of course be stapled. You should SHOW YOUR WORK on computational problems.

Exhibit professionalism in what you submit. Use standard size paper (8.5 by 11 inches or thereabouts). Multipage assignments must be stapled. If you are tearing pages out of a spiral-bound notebook, then trim/remove the irregular page edge (which looks just so junior-high.)

Lecture review assignments are not graded. They are simply checked for reasonable effort. Submitting them on time in professional format gives full credit toward your course "participation" grade. Late, very incomplete, or severely unprofessional submissions receive a penalty grade.

While the lecture review assignments provide a small portion of your grade in the course, the primary reason for doing them is that they facilitate mastery of the course material.

Class activity:

Reflect on the activity ("No Man’s Sky") from class today (or, if you were unable to attend class, then complete the activity on your own). Briefly answer the following questions:

A1) What price did you forecast for a 20-slot Exotic space ship? What brought you to that conclusion?

A2) What price did you forecast for a 48-slot, S-class Hauler space ship? Again, how did you reach that conclusion?

A3) What (as you understand it) were the purposes of that activity? (What was learned, or reinforced, from what we did in class?)

Course syllabus:

Read through the class syllabus. Answer the following questions about the class.

S1) Balph Snerdwell thinks that computing an average is really, really hard, and wants to see Dr. Rasp during office hours for additional help. Where should he go and when should he go there?

S2) Avid hunter Horatio Wajberlinski notes that the first day of deer hunting season falls on a class day. Horatio isn’t going to let a little thing like a class interfere with his opportunity to sit out in the cold and dark and rain on the first day of hunting season. So he skips class. He emails Dr. Rasp in advance to let him (Dr. Rasp) know that he (Horatio) won’t be in class, but gives absolutely no reason why. Is this an excused absence? What happens to Horatio’s grade in the course?

S3) Votmai Tinkinoff is a member of the university’s varsity tic-tac-toe team. They have a match against arch-rival Rollins "College" at the same time as the first exam (or, as Dr. Rasp prefers to call it, "Knowledge Festival"). Obviously, Votmai can’t miss anything as crucially important as a tic-tac-toe match for something as trivial and irrelevant as a Knowledge Festival. When does he take the makeup test?

S4) Ismerelda Tempusfugit is a student in this class. Her parents are planning a family vacation trip to Kafoonistan just as soon as school lets out in the spring. They need to know when Ismerelda’s final exams are, so they can schedule the trip accordingly. When is the Final Exam (or, as Dr. Rasp prefers to call it, the "Ultimate Knowledge Festival") for this course?

S5) Does Dr. Rasp think you should "study for exams" in this class? Why/why not?

S6) Throckmorton P. Addlepate IV is neurotically concerned about his grade in this class. He doesn’t care whether he actually learns anything, as long as he gets at least an "A" (if not higher) in every one of his classes. Yet he can’t seem to find things on Canvas. Before he has a complete breakdown, explain to him what’s going on here.

S7) When is it OK to use generative AI (ChatCPT or similar) in this course? And when is it a really big no-no? Why? What are the penalties for inappropriate use?

Review of Introductory Statistics:

During your previous statistics class (either STAT 301Q, or a similar intro class), you were introduced to an important statistical tool called the standard deviation. Review this crucial concept, in preparation for our next class. You have several options for doing this review: You may simply be able to remember the material from an earlier course. You may consult your course notes and/or textbook. You may do an internet search. You may consult tutorial videos linked from the course website. However you conduct your review, use that information to answer the following. (Remember to SHOW YOUR WORK on computational problems!)

R1) What is a standard deviation? What does it measure?

R2) For normal data, approximately how much of the data lies within one standard deviation of the mean? Two standard deviations? Three?

R3) Find the (sample) standard deviation for the following (very small) data set: 1, 6, 8. Do this by hand. Show your work.

R4) The file BHH.xlsx, posted on the course website, contains data on an industrial experiment, taken from the textbook Statistics for Experimenters (by Box, Hunter, and Hunter) and used in that book to illustrate some concepts in experimental design. Find the (sample) standard deviation of those data values. (Of course you will want to use a computer.)

SOLUTIONS:
I will normally provide brief solutions to computational problems so you can check your work.
Do NOT simply copy these solutions — you should actually work the problem (doh!).
R3) 3.6
R4) 2.88